![]() ![]() Vladimir Putin has consistently supported Dodik. Although he has yet to follow through, the mere idea of it is destabilizing for the country. For years Dodik has threatened to hold a referendum on the RS’ secession from BiH. RS President Milorad Dodik has been doing his utmost to undermine BiH’s Euro-Atlantic integration, BiH’s state-level government, and, potentially, BiH’s territorial integrity. ![]() 6 With the Bosnian elections coming in October 2018, analysts at Jane’s 360 have detected a sudden increase in activity by Twitter accounts promoting pro-Russian narratives while also advocating for separatism in Republika Srpska. Prominent Kremlin narratives include stories that memorialize the NATO bombing of Belgrade to keep public opinion stridently against the Alliance 2 promote conspiracy theories about Western plots to destroy Serb national identity 3 deify Serb war criminals 4 glorify Vladimir Putin and the Russian military 5 and present Russia as the savior of Serbs, including in the ethnic Serb-majority entity Republika Srpska (RS) in Bosnia. Their narratives are then picked up and amplified by sympathetic local commentators and media organizations in the region. 1 These Russian outlets play to the historical and cultural ties between Russians and Serbs, primarily promoting shared ethnic Slavic and Orthodox religious identity, while also reinforcing the idea that Russia is their only true ally and that Serbs should not want the countries of the region (Serbia, BiH, Montenegro) to join Western institutions. In 2015, Russia Today launched Sputnik Srbija news website and radio with its headquarters in Belgrade, and in January 2018, Russia Beyond the Headlines - a news supplement sponsored by the Kremlin - launched a Serbian-language version of its mobile application called RBTH Daily. In recent years, the Kremlin has amplified its propagandistic media in the Western Balkans, significantly targeting the ethnic Serb population not only in Serbia, but also in Bosnia and across the region. To stymie BiH’s Western integration, Russia is destabilizing the country through a number of means: using local media to disseminate pro-Kremlin narratives training a Bosnian Serb paramilitary unit acquiring ownership in strategic industries and, supporting politiciansand groups loyal to Moscow and hostile to the EU and NATO. Although their efforts ultimately failed to overthrow the pro-NATO government or block the country’s eventual accession into the Alliance, the Kremlin sent a message that it is willing to undermine legitimate governments and the rights of the Balkan peoples to choose their own destiny. Most well known is Moscow’s attempt to organize a coup in Montenegro. The Kremlin’s strategic objective in the Western Balkans is to block aspiring nations from joining the EU and NATO. That ethnic tensions persist may not be all that surprising, but addressing the problem requires the recognition that the Russian government is exploiting and exacerbating them. The peace agreement ended the war, but the country remains bedeviled by old demons, particularly nationalist political leaders who capitalize on and fuel ethnic tensions between Bosniaks (Bosnian Muslims), Bosnian Croats, and Bosnian Serbs. More than 20 years have passed since the United States brokered the Dayton Peace Accords to end the conflict that ravaged Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) after the collapse of Yugoslavia. ![]()
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